Recently some British scientists investigated whet...

2009-03-04T01:06:00.000Z

Recently some British scientists investigated whether predictions based on Murphy's Law, that toast always falls butter side down, were true.

They found that if a slice of toast was pushed off a table at normal height, it had just enough time to rotate by 180 degrees before hitting the floor butter side down, as Murphy predicts.

It was decided to demonstrate this to the listeners of BBC's Radio 4, and when the toast fell, it landed butter side up, so proving Murphy's Law! One could almost claim that it also proved Murphy's Law of Research.

But a better example of that is the problem with the MSU (satellite) temperatures. They show no warming in the upper troposphere where the maximumum warming should be happening according to theory. After twenty years of research they have finally found a way to alter the calculations so that they get the result that agrees with their theory, and they can now use these new results to recalibrate the thermometer reading from radiosondes which were giving similar results to the MSUs.

So not only have they shown that enough research will tend to support their theory, they have also proved that with complex enough modelling of the MSU data then it will support their theory, so establishing Murphy's Law of Computer Modelling.

But let's face it, the scientist's ususally get things right. It is just Sod's Law 'Things don’t just go wrong, they do so at the most annoying moment’, that when the future of mankind is at stake, then that is when their theories are wrong :-(

Hi Alastair,

Of course, Murphy's Law ensure...

2009-03-03T17:40:00.000Z

Hi Alastair,

Of course, Murphy's Law ensures that your, mine, and the Wikipedia's definitions of Murphy's Law are all probably wrong! Doh! :-)

More to the point, perhaps George Will was actually referring to Murphy's Law of Research: "Enough research will tend to support your theory," or Murphy's Law of Computer Modelling: "A complex enough computer model will tend to support your theory?"

IMHO, I would think a charge of AGW confirmation bias would be one that would, or at least should, be taken seriously. After all, the issue is just a bit political.

Comments on ComplexClimate: What Gavin Schmidt should have written

Recently some British scientists investigated whet...

Hi Alastair,Of course, Murphy's Law ensure...

Hi Alastair,

Of course, Murphy's Law ensure...